The democratic elections of the semi-authoritarian democracy: The 2015 Singaporean General Election

At least for the West, the notion of having one party win every single election since its independence may come across as absurd. However in the case of the 2015 Singaporean general election, the People's Action Party (PAP) has remained the dominating elite force since Singapore's conception in 1959. On 11 September 2015, the city-state’s most fiercely contested election ever was carried out after its the president dissolved Parliament following the prime minister's advice.

TY AMK voters for supporting me & my team, & giving us e opportunity to serve you for another 5 yrs! – LHL #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/FZ9xFAjKoM

— Lee Hsien Loong (@leehsienloong) September 11, 2015

The results of the election were unsurprising with the PAP obtaining 83 of the 89 seats, defeating the opposing, Workers' Party (WP) who only obtained six seats in Parliament. How the PAP is able to consecutively obtain the vote of Singaporeans raises the question of whether the party maintains its legitimacy through democratic means. Classical realism states that state relations are necessarily conflictual and are resolved by conflict, and that the survival of the state remains the highest priority. While Singapore maintains values of democracy on the surface it exhibits forms of competitive authoritarianism, where political systems do have regular elections but the ruling party is unlikely to be defeated.

Lee Kuan Yew:

The guaranteed victory of the PAP can be attributed to the nation's founding father, Lee Kuan Yew. Singapore developed under semi-authoritarian democracy which alongside its economic growth, ensured its fate as an "Asian Tiger" state. With modernization under authoritarianism, its free-market economics caused realists to argue that Lee Kuan Yew managed the society in an almost cult of personality-like fashion in order to enable its quick transition into a developed nation. Given the importance of the PAP, the death of Lee Kuan Yew  and Singapore's 50th anniversary were considerable factors that pushed the election forward to be held in 2015, despite each election normally being held every 5 years (with the last election in 2011).

Nepotism:

Lee Hsien Loong and Lee Kuan Yew

Political realism views that the world's state of anarchy is caused by self-interest as defined by power and Singapore is not exempt from this as the PAP intends to extend its absolute rule. Lee Kuan Yew, accused of nepotism, plans to maintain his legacy and governance through his son, Lee Hsien Loong. There have been three Singaporean prime ministers in total, from which two are from the Lee family. Current Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has now governed for twelve years and winning the 2015 election would mark the celebration of 50 years of PAP nationalism. This had a detrimental effect on the opposition as shown through the decline in vote percentage for all opposition parties. Lee Kuan Yew's other children coincidently also seem to have important government roles with his daughter as director of the National Neurological Institute and his youngest son as chief executive officer of Singapore Telecommunications.

Opposition Parties: 

Waltz's structural realism views that states respond to systematic pressures and immediate action since states are the ultimate judge of their own interest. The immediacy of the 2015 election was also the PAP's response to potentially their biggest oppositional threat, the Workers' Party (WP).

  Prior to the 2011 election, the WP saw an opportunity to rise when there had been increasing resentment towards the ruling party as there was a period affected by a common fear of unpredictable political change and instability.

    Political leaders: Low Thia Khiang (WP) and Lee Hsien Loong (PAP)

As the political forum expanded through the Internet, other political parties were given a chance to express their views while interacting with larger audiences. Upset with high costs of living and foreign immigration policies, civilians criticised the PAP for its elitist image. Public opinion prompted Singaporeans to vote for a party that identified with the regular Singaporean instead.

Singapore Democrat Party leader Chee Soon Juan

Eventually as a result of this change in political landscape, opposition leader Chee Soon Juan was discharged from bankruptcy caused by a lawsuit initiated by Lee Kuan Yew, in order to participate in the 2015 election.

Freedom of Speech:

The PAP has sustained its authority by limiting and controlling freedom of expression to minimise riots and antipathy towards the party. Singapore has not embraced Western models of pluralistic democracy with the PAP actually owning and manipulating Singaporean media outlets such as Channel News Asia and the Straight Times, censuring any criticism of the Party. 

As a recent example of censorship, teenager Amos Yee was arrested after posting a cartoon image of Lee Kuan Yew having sex with Margaret Thatcher as well as uploading a video praising his death, in which he compared him to Chairman Mao.

The 2015 Singaporean election has shown that the PAP is by all means exerting its influence onto Singaporean citizens to preserve an authoritarian style of governing.  A discontinuation between the older and newer political generations represents changing attitudes amongst the nation and although the election was again won by the PAP, the Party might eventually need to conform to the norms of Western liberal democracy but will nonetheless retain its dominance over Singapore.

A realist game of Guess Who?: The 2015 Bangkok Bombing

Terrorist attacks are the quickest method to create a state of political instability and raises national security concerns especially when it is not conclusive to who is responsible for causing them. As with the most recent bombing that took place on 17 August 2015 in Bangkok near Erawan Shrine injuring 125 and killing 20 people, police are still searching throughout the country for prime suspects, even mistaking Australian actor Sunny Burns for a terrorist. From a realist perspective, Thailand's failure to yet again prevent another bombing attack from occurring (with the last bombing in 2012), has disrupted its relations with other ASEAN nations. Reinforcing this image that Thailand as a nation is unable to prevent political turmoil is a factor that continuously affects South East Asia.

Artist rendition of the Yellow-shirted bomber

CCTV footage reveals a yellow-shirt wearing man dropping off a backpack near where the bombing occurred and is considered a main suspect to the disturbance. It is still unconfirmed to whether the identity of this man is known and whether he has been arrested, but cooperating Thai and Malaysian police have arrested two people in Malaysia of which one of them is suspected of being the yellow-shirt bomber. The Deputy Chief Chaijinda believes the main bomb suspect entered Thailand on a Chinese passport and has fled Thailand through Malaysia. He also claims that they have identified the yellow-shirted man but refuse to name him. This however could simply be a ploy to reassure ASEAN that there is progress of the investigation and leaves the possibility that the man is still on the run.

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Internal terrorism:

The Thai government has not discarded the idea that like in other parts of the world, the attack could be organised by Islamist terrorists. Thailand has been fighting an insurgency in its southernmost Muslim-majority provinces, which has seen more than 6,400 people killed. Prime Minister Prayuth nonetheless dismisses this, stating that its more plausible to assume that it's an act of anti-government red-shirt protesters rather than terrorism from the South of Thailand. This reflects a classical realist attitude that the survival of the state should be the highest priority. Thailand under a military junta would much prefer to blame its problems onto a group that threats its legitimacy by implying the Red-Shirt movement's leader, Thaksin Shinawatra plotted the attack.

Red-shirt rally in 2011

The bombing could be the result of political division. In 2014, Thailand's middle-class protested to oust the populist and democratically-elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra, replacing it with a military junta. Erawan shrine also is an iconic gathering area for red-shirts. Although the bombing has struck a blow to Thai tourism and national security, the military-ruled government sees the situation as an opportunity to retain its role within Thai politics. If the current government is able to identify the culprit and rebuild Thailand quickly enough it will serve as a means of legitimisation for the junta and show that it's far more capable than previous democratically-elected governments.

China's Uyghur Muslims:

With several suspects appearing to be of the Muslim Uyghur minority in China, the attack could have been an act of revenge for Thailand's forced deportation of 109 Uyghur refugees to China in July 2015. The Erawan shrine happens to have many visitors from East Asia and China in particular, making it an obvious target for potential Uyghur terrorists. 

Born in Xinjiang, Bilal Mohammed, who used a fake passport under the name of Adem Karadak to find work in the region, is the first of detained suspects in Thailand and claims he wasn't present in Thailand during the time of the bombing.  

On 8 September, another suspect from Xinjiang, Yusufu Meerailee was arrested trying to flee across the Thai border into Cambodia and has admitted to possessing illegal explosives. 

Following Morgenthau's principles of politic realism, universal morals can be applied to the acting of states no matter what cultural context. Uyghurs, like the Russian Chechnya, have faced cultural discrimination by oppressive governments and seek state independence. Many Uyghurs leave Xinjiang to enter Turkey through the South East Asian region. With Thailand being a Buddhist society that is meant to be religiously tolerant, it is possible that Uyghurs targeted the shrine to harm Chinese tourists. Ethnically related to Turkish people, Beijing claims that several Uighurs are Islamist terrorists that have joined ISIS in Syria. For the Uyghur who view China as a colonial power, China's relationship with Turkey complicates itself as Thailand's deportation of Uighur is a violation of human rights that sparked riots in Turkey. In a worst case scenario, these deportees may be tortured upon returning to China.

Structural realism as per Kenneth Waltz, involves balances of power on both state and international levels with Thailand deporting the Uyghur to support their strengthened relationship with China since the Junta came into power, even if this upsets Turkish Uyghur. At the same time, Thai police are exploring all internal factors that caused the bombing on the domestic level so the current Thai government has a reason to delay its stay in Thai politics.

Born without an identity: The 2015 Rohingya Refugee Crisis

An often ignored question in international relations is what happens to those who are born without a national identity. In the case of the Rohingya, an ethnic minority in Burma, they are excluded from citizenship and are stateless in every possible sense. Subjected to tremendous ethnic and religious discrimination in Myanmar, they were isolated from the majority of the Burmese population since colonial times and have suffered similar treatment under the current Burmese government. From January to March 2015 around 25,000 Rohingya people have crossed waters to seek asylum in South East Asia. The Rohingya refugee presents an unfamiliar situation to ASEAN, making it difficult for the rest of South East Asia to suddenly accept an influx of immigrants.

Entire ships carrying Rohingya refugees in the region are being sent back also as a result of anti-Muslim sentiment. As practitioners of Sunni Islam in a predominantly Buddhist nation, they are considered to be the world's largest persecuted minority group by the United Nations. The antagonisation of the Rohingya Muslims fits alongside global Islamaphobia, and ends up making the arrival of Rohingya seem as a threat when pre-existing stereotypes created by the Burmese are passed on to the rest of ASEAN. From a constructivist viewpoint, refugee crises often raise issues of national security but in reality Myanmar as a state actor intends to identify and create imaginary threats to unite its people against a common "other" to divert its general public from the corruption of its current authoritarian government.

Indonesia and Malaysia:
Following international pressures, In May 2015, both Indonesia and Malaysia have made substantial efforts to take in more Rohingya boat migrants and have agreed to take in 7,000 Rohingya migrants who were stranded in the Andaman Sea. Talks between the foreign ministers of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia draw attention to a need to address the origin of discrimination as experienced by Rohingya. Although socially constructed, ASEAN states remain committed to find a more rational solution to the migration that may abide with human rights as Rohingyas have fled the country that doesn’t recognize them as a people. At the same time, ASEAN as a body that promotes democracy and security within the region, sees a moral obligation to assist a persecuted minority that has nowhere to go. By forcing its members to take action, it pressures Myanmar to reform their policy on the ethnic minority that has been unrecognised by the State since 1982.

Australia and the Philippines:
Australia has a history of aiding nations in need as the Australian governments have previously provided humanitarian assistance to the Rohingya living in the Northern Rakhine State in Myanmar. However, when questioned about whether Australia would grant entry to Rohingya migrants, Prime Minister Tony Abbot's response was "Nope, nope, nope." Following constructivist values of respect of state sovereignty and a principle of non-intervention in mind, Abbott blames the refugee crisis as being strictly a Burmese problem, allowing Australia to not view itself under any moral obligation to let in refugees. On the other hand, the Philippines has offered to allow the migrant boats landing rights in spite of its geographical location, carrying out its tradition of assisting boat migrants in a similar manner to migrants from Southern Vietnam in the 1970's.

Thailand: 

For Rohingya who aim to arrive in Malaysia, they often need to make a first stop in Thailand. However Thailand has become a ground where Rohingya face indefinite detention upon entering the country. Treated as illegal immigrants, they are detained in immigration detention centres and in worst cases, they’re beaten and discarded through human trafficking to rubber plantation owners. 

Unease within the Arakan state has constantly seen Buddhist extremists brutally murdering Rohingya Muslims with the support of the Burmese military regime. The capital, Sittwe has retained this reputation of anti-Rohingya sentiment after 2012 riots drove 140'000 Rohingyans out of the city.

Deprived of education and other basic human rights, communities are in fact encouraged by local authorities to use violence against the ethnic minority. The Rohingya have been constantly affected by systems of apartheid established by the Burmese in Rakhine. More recently, Buddhist monks joined anti-Rohingya rallies as seen in May 2015. As a means to counter international criticism of Myanmar's attitude towards the Rohingya minority, protesters marched against what they viewed as bullying on behalf of the international community. By claiming Rohingya Muslims as a threat to state religion and sovereignty, Burmese leaders have permitted the use of violence to allow the persistence of insurgency through religious nationalism and to fortify Buddhist solidarity that opposes a common enemy.

To Myanmar, the construction of means to normalise violence has incited the genocide and migration of the Rohingya people. By appropriating ethnic discrimination of a minority, Burma has effectively created a sense of ignorant nationalism that serves as a diversion from Burma's democratic issues. This in turn has sparked a need from ASEAN nations to step up and show that Myanmar needs to conform to universal humanitarian norms.